Nagpur:The campaign for Maharashtra’s 288-seat assembly election has turned into an aggressive yet perplexing affair. With Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), three factions of Shiv Sena, and two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) vying for the attention of approximately 94 million voters, the BJP appears poised to emerge as the largest party in the state. But what exactly is driving this trend? Let’s delve into the reasons.
Key Factors in the Assembly Election
The political landscape of Maharashtra is buzzing with questions: Which factor will dominate this election? How will caste equations play out? What will happen in Marathwada? Who will gain an edge in Vidarbha? And who will win the battle for Mumbai? These questions have filled newspapers and media discussions. Following the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) success in the Lok Sabha elections just months ago, many wonder if the alliance can replicate its victory in the assembly elections.
In Marathwada, the Maratha reservation issue is a significant factor, while in cosmopolitan Mumbai, the sentiments of local Marathi voters vary widely. There is a perception among some voters that Maharashtra is losing out on multi-crore projects to Gujarat. However, regional parties like Shiv Sena, under Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership, have been cautious not to alienate the Gujarati vote bank in Mumbai, thus avoiding a direct confrontation on this issue.
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Lok Sabha Elections: A Mixed Outcome
The confusion started with the Lok Sabha results, where the Sharad Pawar-led MVA won 30 seats, while the BJP-led alliance secured only 17 seats. Congress bagged 13, and BJP managed only 9 seats. However, the vote share difference between the MVA and BJP alliances was marginal—around 200,000 votes. This tight margin highlights the competitive nature of Maharashtra’s electoral politics.
A National Turning Point for BJP
Maharashtra’s assembly election holds national significance for the BJP. After winning Haryana, the BJP aims to prove that its setbacks in the Lok Sabha were an anomaly. A loss in Maharashtra could weaken the BJP’s position both nationally and within the Modi government, while strengthening the bargaining power of its allies and critics. Campaign speeches by Modi, Amit Shah, and Yogi Adityanath have largely targeted Congress, underscoring the BJP’s strategic focus on defeating its key rival.
BJP’s Strategy to Mobilize Hindu Votes
BJP has intensified its Hindutva narrative with slogans like “Batenge to Katenge” (divided we fall) and “Ek Hai to Surakshit Hai” (united we are secure) to consolidate votes among Maratha, Muslim, and Dalit communities. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi’s advocacy for a caste census has been met with BJP’s resistance, as such a move could potentially lead to changes in the quota system based on caste demographics.
In rural Maharashtra, BJP is quietly working to mobilize OBCs and non-Maratha castes, using a strategy similar to its success with non-Jat voters in Haryana. With over 330 sub-castes among OBCs and more than 55 among Dalits in Maharashtra, the BJP aims to bring these fragmented groups together under its umbrella.
Focus on Becoming the Largest Party
This assembly election is heavily influenced by local sentiments, issues, and the strength of individual candidates in each constituency. While Congress faces BJP directly in nearly 70 seats, the BJP’s performance in Vidarbha, Sharad Pawar’s influence in Marathwada, and the battle between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde in Mumbai and Thane are critical contests to watch. BJP is aiming to surpass its 2019 tally of 105 seats, focusing on becoming the single largest party. This would give it the upper hand in exploring constitutional options for government formation if a clear mandate remains elusive.
As Maharashtra heads into a high-stakes election, the BJP’s strategy and its ability to navigate regional and caste complexities will determine whether it can claim the top spot.
