With only a few hours left for the final declaration of the Maharashtra Assembly election results, the BJP-led Mahayuti (Grand Alliance) is poised for a resounding victory. Recovering from its recent setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections, the alliance has surged ahead, currently leading in 221 of the 288 assembly constituencies, while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) lags behind.
The Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction have performed notably well, strengthening their position within the Mahayuti. This election, seen as a battle for legitimacy between the rival factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP, appears to have favored Shinde and Pawar’s groups over their counterparts led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
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Wednesday 15 Jan. 2025
Who Will Be the Next Chief Minister?
A key question emerging after the NDA’s likely victory is: *Who will be Maharashtra’s next Chief Minister?* BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis is expected to secure a decisive win from the Nagpur South-West constituency, and Eknath Shinde is leading comfortably in Kopri-Pachpakhadi. As the BJP emerges as the dominant party within the alliance, it is likely to push for Fadnavis, a senior leader with extensive administrative experience, to reclaim the Chief Minister’s seat.
However, the Shinde faction might insist on retaining Eknath Shinde as the face of the government, especially since Mahayuti campaigned under his leadership. The policies and promises of the Shinde-led administration are credited with securing the alliance’s mandate. This situation echoes the 2019 elections when a tussle over the Chief Minister’s post caused the split between the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena.
While BJP ceded the Chief Ministership to Shinde after the 2022 rebellion, this time, with over 120 MLAs in its fold, it may be less inclined to make such concessions. The strong performance of all three alliance partners in their respective strongholds could lead to intense negotiations over ministerial posts, potentially testing the alliance’s unity.
A Repeat of 2019?
The political dynamics of 2024 bear striking similarities to the post-election scenario in 2019. Back then, BJP won 105 seats, and its alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena fell apart due to disagreements over the Chief Minister’s post. This led to the formation of the MVA government under Uddhav Thackeray.
Now, with a fragmented political landscape featuring two factions each of Shiv Sena and NCP, the BJP finds itself in a stronger position. Unlike 2019, the BJP would only need support from one of its two allies to form a government, giving it an upper hand in negotiations. However, if the BJP pushes too hard, it risks straining its relationship with the Shinde-led Sena, which may feel sidelined.
MVA’s Struggles and Setbacks
The opposition MVA alliance has performed poorly, leading in only 52 constituencies. Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar) are ahead in 19, 19, and 14 seats respectively. Despite its strong showing in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the Congress faces criticism for failing to convert its share of contested seats into victories.
For Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, the results mark a significant blow to their political standing. Both leaders, who have been attempting to rebuild their parties after internal rebellions, now face heightened challenges as their breakaway factions emerge stronger in this election.
With the BJP and Mahayuti firmly in the lead, Maharashtra’s political landscape is set for intriguing developments, and all eyes are on the unfolding post-election negotiations.
