As exit polls present their forecasts, the famed Phalodi Satta Bazar, which has gained prominence in recent years, has revealed its own predictions for the Maharashtra elections. Surprisingly, its estimates differ from many mainstream exit polls, sparking curiosity and debate.
Phalodi’s Maharashtra Election Prediction
Today’s Rate
Thursday 21 Nov. 2024
While exit polls mostly predict an edge for the NDA in Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, Phalodi’s betting market suggests the BJP is set to emerge as the single largest party in Maharashtra. Among the 288 assembly seats, BJP is expected to win 90-95 seats, according to the market’s estimates. The BJP fielded candidates in 147 constituencies, the most among the Mahayuti alliance partners, which bolsters its position in the state.
For the ruling Mahayuti coalition, Phalodi predicts:
– BJP: 90-95 seats
– Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction): 36-40 seats
– Ajit Pawar’s NCP: 12-16 seats
This amounts to a combined 142-151 seats for the Mahayuti alliance, potentially ensuring a majority and the formation of a stable government.
Other Betting Markets Weigh In
Beyond Phalodi, other betting hubs like the Bikaner Satta Bazar and Mahadev Online Satta Bazar also foresee an advantage for Mahayuti. However, their analysis highlights a close contest, suggesting the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) may not lag far behind, losing by a slim margin. In such a scenario, independent candidates and smaller parties could play a crucial role in government formation.
Exit Poll Results: A Mixed Bag
Mainstream exit polls also present a diverse range of outcomes for Maharashtra and Jharkhand:
1. Maharashtra:
– Dainik Bhaskar: MVA 135-150 seats, Mahayuti 125-140 seats
– Matrij: Mahayuti 150-170 seats, MVA 110-130 seats
– People’s Pulse: Mahayuti 175-195 seats, MVA 85-112 seats
– Chanakya Strategies: Mahayuti 152-160 seats, MVA 130-138 seats
2. Jharkhand:
– Axis My India: INDIA alliance (JMM-Congress-RJD) 53 seats, NDA 25 seats
– People’s Pulse: NDA 44-53 seats, INDIA alliance 25-37 seats
– Chanakya Strategies: NDA 45-50 seats, INDIA alliance 35-38 seats
The conflicting predictions reflect a tightly contested electoral battle in both states. As counting day approaches, all eyes are on the results to see if the betting markets or exit polls prove to be more accurate.
